Mark McGwire of the St. Louis Cardinals, who is already 33 years old, would need to belt at least 38.7 homers a season over the next 10 years to top Aaron.
It is safe to say that the home run king's record won't be broken any time soon and, according to Aaron, the astronomical contracts given to today's players may help to keep the record safe.
"I don't think you're going to find as many players staying in the game long enough [to break it]," Aaron said on Friday. "Today's players are going to make as much money as they can. The talent is going to be there, though."
The 63-year-old Aaron, who is now senior vice president and assistant
to the president of the Atlanta Braves, broke Babe Ruth's record of 714
career home runs on April 8, 1974, at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium. He
hit his last home run two years later as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Aaron also collected a major league-record 2,297 RBIs during his 23-year
career.
Of the above players, Griffey, who at 27 already has 278 career home
runs, may have the best shot at the record. Griffey belted a pair of homers
in Seattle's split with the Chicago White Sox Sunday, giving him 40 for
the season. This is his fourth 40-home run season.
In setting the record, Aaron topped 40 homers in a season eight times, with a career-high 47 in 1971.
Of those who could be said to have any shot at the record, San Francisco Giants outfielder Barry Bonds has gone deep 364 times, Jose Canseco of the Oakland Athletics has belted 349 and Fred McGriff of the Braves has rounded the bases 333 times. Bonds, Canseco and McGriff are all 33.
The home run record is still very special to Aaron. "It's a wonderful accomplishment," he said. "Of course I don't dwell on it that much anymore, but I'm happy that I was able to compete at the level I was able to compete. I'm excited about what I accomplished."
What about McGwire, Bonds, Griffey or some other slugger breaking Roger Maris' record of 61 home runs in a season?
"They've all got a shot at it," Aaron said. "Anything and everything is possible. But I've said many times when people start talking about records, they have to look a little deeper."
To break Maris' record, a player would need plenty of protection in the lineup, according to Aaron.
"The one thing that people forget about is the fact that Roger Maris had Mickey Mantle, a switch-hitter, hitting behind him," Aaron said. "The year that he broke the record, the [New York] Yankees had an incredible year. It was a team that Roger took advantage of. Mickey was having a fantastic year. Elston Howard was having a good year. Johnny Blanchard was having a good year. Bill Skowron. Yogi [Berra]. He was surrounded by good hitters."
While baseball fans can cheer for players like Griffey to make a run at Maris' record, Aaron has many concerns about today's game.
"Baseball has a lot of problems," he said. "It's still the haves and the have-nots. Is that good for baseball? I don't know.
"For example, I saw the Pittsburgh Pirates come in here [to Atlanta
last week] and beat the Braves two straight. Their payroll is barely $10
million, and we just signed [pitcher] Greg Maddux for $57 million."
But Aaron was happy to see the Pirates' competitiveness. Players want to "win, no matter how big your payroll might be," he said. "I don't know what the average salary of those kids out there is. But I enjoyed it tremendously when I saw [the Pirates] playing. You don't need to have a payroll of $60 million to have a good ballclub."
Of course, even Aaron admits a little money has helped the Braves, who won the NL pennant in 1991, `92, `95 and `96, and beat the Cleveland Indians in the 1995 World Series.
"Big money. Deep pockets. Buy what you want. Play who you want," Aaron said. "Who could pay the payroll of the Atlanta Braves' pitching staff? It's big money."
Maddux is the highest-paid player in baseball, and fellow Braves starters Tom Glavine and John Smoltz aren't far behind.
The game has changed a lot since Aaron ended his career with the Brewers in 1976. Money isn't the only difference, he said. Years ago, starters pitched the whole game and there weren't many middle relievers or closers.
"Those things didn't happen when I was playing," Aaron said. "If a guy
started the ballgame, usually he stood out there and pitched the whole
game. Guys like [Tom] Seaver, [Jerry] Koosman, Warren Spahn, Bob Gibson.
Those guys knew how to pitch from the seventh inning on. If you gave them
a lead in the seventh inning, you could almost go home because they knew
how to get people out in the last two innings."